Day: April 8, 2024

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

Why in news:  Rising temperatures have increased the risk of glacial lake outbursts of the kind that devastated the Kedarnath Valley in 2013 and parts of Chamoli in 2021. Uttarakhand has initiated a GLOF risk assessment study.

Introduction

To address the growing threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) – devastating events that have previously caused widespread damage in areas such as the Kedarnath Valley in 2013 and parts of Chamoli in 2021 – the Uttarakhand government has taken proactive steps. It has established two expert teams dedicated to assessing the risk associated with five glacial lakes considered potentially dangerous. These lakes are particularly vulnerable to GLOFs, a concern heightened by the devastating effects of similar past events in the Himalayan region.

The initiative is part of a broader risk assessment strategy aimed at reducing the likelihood of future GLOF incidents and ensuring that there is adequate time for relief operations and evacuation processes in the event of a lake breach. This effort is in line with the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) work, under the aegis of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, which has flagged 188 glacial lakes across the Himalayan states as potential GLOF risks due to heavy rainfall, with 13 of these lakes located in Uttarakhand.

Global climate change has increased the risk of GLOFs. Rising global surface temperatures have caused glacial lakes to expand and increase in number, putting about 15 million people at risk of flash and severe flooding. These changes underline the urgent need for targeted risk assessment and mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the destructive force of GLOFs.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a type of flood that occurs when water in a glacial lake is suddenly released. These lakes form behind natural dams formed by ice or moraines (accumulations of glacial debris). GLOFs can release millions of cubic meters of water, causing massive floods downstream with the potential to destroy anything in their path.

Process of glacial lake formation

Glacial lakes form from a combination of glacial activity and naturally occurring material. As glaciers advance, they can block valleys with ice or moraine, forming a natural dam. Meltwater from glaciers or rainfall collects behind this dam, forming a lake. Over time, as the climate warms, the glaciers retreat and leave behind these dammed lakes.

Factors leading to GLOFs

Ice or moraine dam failure: The most common cause is lake dam failure. Such erosion may be caused by the melting of an ice dam or the weakening of a moraine dam over time.

Seismic activity: Earthquakes can destabilize a natural dam or lake ice cap, causing a sudden release of water.

Heavy rainfall or rapid melting: Heavy rainfall or unusually rapid melting of snow and ice can cause lakes to overflow, causing natural dams to break.

Ice or rock avalanche: An avalanche falling into a glacial lake can displace water so rapidly that it can break the dam.

Recent Data and Facts

In recent years, climate change has significantly affected glaciated areas, increasing the frequency and intensity of GLOFs. As glaciers melt at unprecedented rates, more glacial lakes are formed, and existing lakes become larger and more unstable.

This trend increases the risk of floods especially in areas such as the Himalayas, the Andes and parts of the Arctic. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has identified hundreds of potentially dangerous glacial lakes within the Himalayan region alone.

For example, a study published in “Nature Climate Change” in 2021 highlighted that the number of glacial lakes worldwide has increased by about 50% since the 1990s, directly linked to global warming. Is related to increase in temperature. This increase in the number and volume of glacial lakes increases the risk of GLOFs, posing a significant threat to millions of people living in vulnerable areas.

Notable GLOF Events Globally

1925, Coeur d’Alene Lake, United States: One of the early documented GLOFs occurred when a moraine-dammed lake in Idaho burst, causing significant damage.

1935, Sikkim, India: A GLOF from the Llonak Lake in Sikkim caused widespread destruction and loss of life, highlighting the dangers posed by these events in the Himalayan region.

1985, Armero Tragedy, Colombia: Perhaps one of the most tragic GLOFs occurred when the Nevado del Ruiz volcano’s eruption melted a glacier, causing an outburst flood that buried the town of Armero, killing more than 20,000 people.

1996, Iceland: A subglacial volcanic eruption melted part of the Vatnajökull glacier, leading to a massive GLOF. The flood waters carried icebergs up to 10 meters tall and destroyed bridges and roads, illustrating the power of GLOFs in cold volcanic regions.

2000, Bhutan: A GLOF from the Luggye Tso glacial lake in Bhutan unleashed around 45 million cubic meters of water, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture but was notable for the successful mitigation efforts that reduced human fatalities.

Global Impact of GLOFs

Geographical vulnerability

Himalayas: Known as a hotspot for GLOFs, this region has seen the most frequent GLOF events in high mountain Asia, especially the Karakoram Range. GLOFs have caused the loss of more than 7,000 lives over the past 190 years, with significant impacts on local communities, biodiversity, and infrastructure.

Andes: GLOFs have caused approximately 32,000 deaths in Peru alone during the 20th century, with significant impacts on downstream communities and infrastructure. Glacier shrinkage in the region has led to an increase in the number and size of glacial lakes, increasing the risk of future GLOFs.

North America: Areas of western Canada and the western United States also experienced GLOFs, causing ecological and geomorphic disturbances, including destroyed vegetation, alluvial fans, and impacts on aquatic wildlife.

Factors Contributing to Regional Vulnerabilities

The increasing number of GLOFs is linked to climate change, which is causing glaciers to retreat and form new glacial lakes. Other contributing factors include:

Physical geography: The topography of regions such as the Himalayas and the Andes, where steep slopes and large glacial lakes are common, increases the risk of GLOF events.

Climate change: Warmer temperatures contribute to the melting of glaciers, leading to the formation and growth of glacial lakes behind unstable natural dams.

Human activity: Expansion into glaciated catchments and development of infrastructure in high-risk areas have further increased vulnerability to GLOFs.

Socioeconomic impact

Loss of life: GLOFs have caused thousands of deaths in affected areas, particularly in high-mountain Asia and the Andes.

Damage to infrastructure: Roads, bridges, and hydropower developments are particularly vulnerable to sudden and massive water discharges from GLOFs.

Economic costs: Destruction of agricultural land, livestock, and property could result in millions of dollars in losses, with a severe impact on the local economy.

Long-term displacement and agricultural disruption: GLOF-affected communities may face long-term displacement, and destruction of agricultural lands could disrupt local food supplies and livelihoods.

Why in news:  According to joint media intelligence, members of a Russian military intelligence unit could target the brains of US officials using “directed energy” weapons. The Kremlin rejected a joint media investigation that found evidence that a Russian military intelligence unit may have been responsible for a mysterious health condition known as ‘Havana Syndrome’ that has affected US diplomats and spies around the world.

Introduction:

What did the investigation find?

The inquiry suggests that operatives from a Russian military intelligence unit known as 29155 may have targeted U.S. officials’ brains using “directed energy” weapons. This unit, active for over ten years, has faced allegations of engaging in assassination, subversion, and sabotage abroad.

The investigation reveals evidence indicating the presence of unit 29155 members at locations where suspected attacks on U.S. government personnel and their families overseas occurred. It further notes that the initial incident likely occurred in Germany, two years before the 2016 reports from Havana.

What is Havana syndrome?

Havana Syndrome is described as a collection of psychological and physical symptoms reported by United States embassy and intelligence personnel stationed in various nations. The term “syndrome” denotes a group of symptoms frequently occurring together, without implying a singular, identifiable medical condition, but rather pointing to a constellation of symptoms with potentially elusive origins.

The symptoms associated with Havana Syndrome include experiencing specific sounds without any external source, nausea, dizziness, headaches, memory lapses, and balance issues.

Originating in Cuba around late 2016, shortly after the United States re-established its embassy in Havana in 2015 as part of a normalization of diplomatic relations, certain US intelligence operatives and embassy staff reported experiencing sudden, intense pressures in their heads, accompanied by lasting headaches, disorientation, and difficulty sleeping.

Where has Havana syndrome been reported?

2017 Incident in Uzbekistan: Before the Guangzhou case, a USAID employee at the US Embassy in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, reported symptoms in September 2017, indicating the global reach of these incidents.

2018 Reports in China: The phenomenon spread with US diplomats in China reporting similar symptoms, beginning with a notable case in April 2018 at the Guangzhou consulate. An American consulate employee disclosed experiencing these symptoms since late 2017, marking one of the first instances outside of Cuba.

2019 and 2020 Incidents in the US: The United States itself was not spared, with incidents reported within its borders, notably in Washington DC. One such incident occurred at The Ellipse, a park near the White House.

Global Reports: Over the subsequent years, more than 130 instances have been reported worldwide, spanning continents and including locations such as Moscow, Russia; Poland; Georgia; Taiwan; Colombia; Kyrgyzstan; Uzbekistan; and Austria.

2021 Delay for Vice-President Harris: New York Times report highlighted the delay of US Vice-President Kamala Harris’s flight to Hanoi, Vietnam, by three hours. This delay was attributed to a US official in Vietnam reporting Havana Syndrome symptoms, underscoring the syndrome’s impact at high levels of government.

First Case in India in 2021: India reported its first case in 2021, involving a US intelligence officer traveling to New Delhi with CIA director William Burns, further demonstrating the global and pervasive nature of these incidents.

Investigations and Theories:

• In 2020, the National Academies of Sciences (NAS) suggested directed microwave radiation as a plausible cause.
• Microwave weapons or Direct Energy Weapons (DEWs) were considered potential sources, capable of causing symptoms by heating body water.

International Development of DEWs:

• China displayed its microwave weapon, Poly WB-1, at an air show in 2014.
• The U.S. developed the “Active Denial System,” a non-lethal, directed-energy counter-personnel system.

Shift in Understanding and Assessments:

January 2022: CIA interim assessment concluded Havana Syndrome is not from a global campaign by a hostile power; foreign involvement was ruled out in 976 out of 1,000 cases.

February 2022: Reports suggested many incidents could be stress or psychosomatic reactions; directed energy attacks unlikely.

March 2023: U.S. intelligence agencies reported foreign adversary involvement was “very unlikely.”

March 2024: NIH studies found no evidence of brain injury, abnormal blood biomarkers, or vocational impairment in affected individuals.

Continued Research and Speculation:

• Despite assessments, the Pentagon funded experiments to recreate symptoms using RF waves.
• 60 Minutes report in March 2024 linked Russian GRU Unit 29155 to the incidents, though official reports and studies have largely moved away from attributing the syndrome to foreign attacks.

Causes of Havana syndrome

Psychological Origin:

Scientists suggest that most cases of Havana syndrome may be psychogenic, possibly resulting from somatic symptom disorder, conversion disorder, or mass psychotic illness, evidence of attacks by enemy states, or medical evidence of brain/health damage. Citing the absence of.

Stress from working in former Cold War adversary countries and anxiety from potential surveillance have been suggested as causes of some cases, with some symptoms possibly being manifestations of PTSD.

Political and Cold War effects:

Psychological explanations have been suggested less by American politicians, who may prefer the story of attacks by foreign powers such as Cuba, Russia, and China for political gain. The Trump administration in particular has been accused of using this narrative to strain US–Cuba relations.

A March 2024 “60 Minutes” report provided the first direct evidence linking Russian military intelligence unit 29155 to the events.

Financial Incentives: There are suggestions that there may be financial motives in cases of Havana syndrome, with affected individuals and medical professionals potentially benefiting from the story of alien attacks. The Havana Act, offering up to $187,000 in compensation to victims, has been cited as an example.

Professional and Media Reports: Concern over professional backlash may cause some scientists to avoid endorsing the psychological hypothesis, preferring instead the theory of attacks by hostile forces.

Media coverage has been criticized for potentially supporting a more sensational narrative of alien attacks rather than a psychological explanation, with some commenting on the coverage regarding the directed energy weapon theory as highly credible.

Critics of the media’s handling of Havana syndrome suggest a bias towards security-related reporting rather than health-focused analysis. Interpretation of the JAMA studies as evidence of brain damage has been contested, suggesting that embracing psychological understanding may aid recovery.

Attacks by hostile foreign powers: Early theories speculated on a sonic weapon by opponents, although later investigations questioned the ability of sound waves to cause the reported symptoms and suggested poor monitoring equipment or natural sources such as crickets. Guided electromagnetic weapons were also speculated as the cause.

Despite the lack of conclusive evidence for hostile attacks or electromagnetic energy-generating symptoms, a “60 Minutes” report in March 2024 claimed Russian involvement through GRU Unit 29155.

Environmental factors:

Some cases of Havana syndrome have been attributed to environmental toxins or pesticides, suggesting a non-psychotic, non-hostile origin for some symptoms.